| Despite   technology weakness, stocks finished the week mildly higher.  For the   week, the Dow gained 0.6% and S&P500 gained 0.5%.  The Transports   added 1.1%, while Utilities rose 1.7%.  The Morgan Stanley Cyclical   index gained 1.4% and the Morgan Stanley Consumer index added 1.1%.  The   broader market performed well, as the small cap Russell 2000 and S&P400   Mid-cap indices rose 0.8%.  Technology stocks faltered, led by the   semiconductors.  For the week, the NASDAQ100 fell 1.2% and the Morgan   Stanley High Tech index dropped 1.7%.  The semiconductors dropped 6.4%   for the week. The Street.com Internet Index fell 0.9% and the NASDAQ   Telecommunications index retreated 1.2%.  The Biotechs were off 0.7%.    Financial stocks were mixed, as the Broker/Dealers declined 1.7%, while the   banks were slightly positive.  With bullion sinking $2.75, the HUI index   declined 0.7%. Today’s   drubbing took some wind out of the Treasury market’s sails.  For the   week, 2-year Treasury yields rose 8 basis points to 2.57%.  Five-year   Treasury yields were up 7 basis points to 3.49%.  Ten-year yields added   6 basis points to 4.28%.  Long-bond yields ended the week at 5.05%, up 4   basis points on the week.  Benchmark Fannie Mae MBS yields added 3 basis   points, relatively in line with Treasuries.  The spread (to 10-year   Treasuries) on Fannie’s 4 3/8% 2013 note widened 1 to 32, and the spread on   Freddie’s 4 ½ 2013 note was about unchanged at 30.  The 10-year dollar   swap spread added 1.5 to 47.75.  Corporate bond spreads were again   little changed for the week and continue to perform well.  The implied   yield on 3-month December Eurodollars jumped 10 basis points to a one-month   high 2.315%.   September   3 – Bloomberg (David Russell):  “Procter & Gamble Co. and SBC   Communications Inc. led borrowers of almost $39 billion in the U.S. last month,   the most in an August since 2001, as companies took advantage of a drop in   borrowing costs to four-month lows.” Corporate   debt issuance was virtually nonexistent this week.  Investment grade   issuers included Metlife $450 million.         Junk   bond funds reported inflows of $269 million for the week (from AMG), with   two-week inflows a notable $533 million.     September   3 – Bloomberg (Eddie Baeb):  “Municipal bond mutual funds had their   first week of cash inflow from investors since March as returns improved   because concern has lessened that that Federal Reserve will raise interest   rates rapidly. Municipal bond funds had net inflows of $91 million for the   week…(from) AMG… after 22 weeks of consecutive outflows when investors pulled   a cumulative $9.46 billion out of municipal bond funds.” September   2 – Bloomberg (Ed Leefeldt):  “Bank of America Corp. is among lenders   seeking investors for $9.75 billion in financing for General Growth   Properties amid record demand for high-risk, high-yield loans in the U.S.   General Growth Properties, the second-largest owner of shopping malls, is   borrowing to fund its $7.2 billion purchase of the Rouse Co. and to refinance   existing debt.” Japanese   10-year JGB yields declined 3 basis points to 1.54%.  Brazilian benchmark   bond yields declined 7 basis points to 9.42%.  Mexican govt. yields   dropped 5 basis points this week to 5.39%.  Russian 10-year Eurobond   yields added one basis point to 6.27%.   Freddie   Mac posted 30-year fixed mortgage rates declined 5 basis points this week to   5.77%.  This is the lowest level since the first week of April and down   67 basis points from one year ago.  Fifteen-year fixed mortgage rates   were down 6 basis points to 5.15%.  One-year adjustable-rate mortgages   could be had at 3.97%, down 8 basis points for the week to the lowest level   in 14 weeks.  The Mortgage Bankers Association Purchase application   index was about unchanged last week.  Purchase applications were up 12%   from one year ago, with dollar volume up 28%.  Refi applications dipped   1%.  The average Purchase mortgage was for $215,900, and the average ARM   was $293,500.  ARMs accounted for 33.1% of applications last week.     Broad   money supply (M3) surged $36.5 billion (week of August 23).    Year-to-date (34 weeks), broad money is up $496.9 billion, or 8.6%   annualized.  For the week, Currency added $1.3 billion.  Demand   & Checkable Deposits jumped $18.3 billion.  Savings Deposits   declined $10.4 billion.  Saving Deposits have expanded $267.9 billion so   far this year (13% annualized).  Small Denominated Deposits gained $0.8   billion.  Retail Money Fund deposits rose $4.3 billion.    Institutional Money Fund deposits increased $4.8 billion.  Large   Denominated Deposits rose $9.3 billion, increasing at a 26% rate so far this   year.  Repurchase Agreements gained $6.1 billion, while Eurodollar   deposits added $2.1 billion.         Bank   Credit expanded $15.7 billion for the week of August 25 to $6.61 Trillion.    Bank Credit has expanded $336.8 billion during the first 34 weeks of the   year, or 8.2% annualized.  Securities holdings declined $7.1   billion, while Loans & Leases jumped $22.8 billion.  Commercial   & Industrial loans gained $4.9 billion, while Real Estate loans added   $0.5 billion.  Real Estate loans are up $190.1 billion y-t-d, or   13.0% annualized.  Consumer loans rose $4.1 billion for the week,   while Securities loans added $2.2 billion. Other loans declined $1.3 billion.    Elsewhere, Total Commercial Paper rose $2.3 billion to $1.363 Trillion (up   $13.6bn over 2 weeks).  Financial CP gained $3.3 billion to $1.234   Trillion, expanding at a 9.4% rate thus far this year to the highest level   since May 2001.  Non-financial CP dipped $1.0 billion (up 28.1%   annualized y-t-d).  Year-to-date, Total CP is up $94 billion, or   11.0% annualized.  Year-to-date ABS issuance increased to $401.2 billion, 39% ahead   of comparable 2003.  Year-to-date Home Equity ABS issuance of $248.8   billion is running 82% above a year ago. Fed   Foreign “Custody” Holdings of Treasury, Agency Debt rose $4.9 billion to   $1.283 Trillion. Year-to-date, Custody Holdings are up $215.9 billion, or   30% annualized.  Federal Reserve Credit jumped almost $9 billion   last week to $764 billion, raising y-t-d gains to $17.5 billion (3.5%   annualized).   Currency Watch: Today’s   nearly 1% gain took the dollar index back to almost even for another volatile   week in the currency markets.  The South African rand gained 2%, while   the Canadian dollar and Brazilian real increased 1% against the dollar.    On the downside, the Australian dollar declined 1.7% and the New Zealand   dollar 1%, while the Mexican peso and British pound dipped nearly 1%. Commodities Watch: It   was another wild week in commodity trading.  But despite today’s   decline, the CRB jumped 1.2% this week, increasing y-t-d gains to 7.1%.    With October crude gaining 81 cents to $43.99, the Goldman Sachs Commodities   index added 0.5% (year-to-date gains of 15.2%).       China Watch: September   3 – Bloomberg (Wing-Gar Cheng):  “China’s economy may grow 9 percent in   the third quarter, the Ministry of Commerce said, slowing from the previous   three months as government efforts to curb lending to industries such as   steel and cement take effect. The world's seventh-largest economy, which   expanded at a 9.6 percent rate in the second quarter, is still growing at a ‘fast   pace,’ the ministry said…” August   30 – Bloomberg (Amit Prakash):  “Chinese demand for commodities,   including coal and steel, pushed global shipping prices to a four-month high,   signaling that government-imposed lending limits aren’t abruptly slowing   China's economy. The Baltic Dry Index, which measures the cost of shipping   coal, iron ore and other raw materials globally, has risen 61 percent since   June 22. China will account for 36 percent of this year’s worldwide demand   for iron ore, the main raw ingredient in steel…” August   30 – XFN:  “China is expected to invest a massive 4.64 trillion yuan in   the power sector by 2010 to boost installed generating capacity and to   resolve a critical energy shortage, the official Xinhua news agency reported.   The official news agency, citing Wang Yonggan, the general secretary of the   China Electricity Council, said that the nation is expected to spend an   average 658.8 billion yuan a year between 2003 and 2010, with investment   growing at an annual rate of 25%.” August   30 – Bloomberg (Allen T. Cheng):  “China’s stockpile of automobiles rose   to a record last month, the Worker’s Daily reported, citing a study from the   China Automobile Industry Association. The number of unsold cars held by   automakers and dealers was more than 620,000 at the end of July…” Asia Inflation Watch: September   3 – Bloomberg (Theresa Tang):  “Taiwan’s foreign-currency reserves, the   third-highest in the world, rose in August for the 38th month to a record   $231.6 billion, the central bank said. The reserves, which rank behind those   of Japan and China, rose 0.5 percent from $230.4 billion in July…” September   1 – Bloomberg (Joshua Fellman):  “Hong Kong-based toy manufacturers are facing ‘heavy monetary losses’ because of rising raw materials prices and shortages of labor and electricity at their factories in China, according to industry association officials. The prices of common plastic raw materials used to make toys have risen more than 30 percent in about the past month, after most toy orders were placed earlier in the year, Hong Kong Toys Council Chairman Samson Chan said…” September   1 – UPI:  “South Korea’s consumer prices in August climbed 4.8 percent   year-on-year, reaching a 37-month high, a government report said… The sharp   increase is raising concerns about stagflation as consumer price hikes   accompany a stagnant economy. The August consumer price index was 4.8 percent   higher than a year earlier, the biggest rise since the year preceding July   2001…” August   31 – Bloomberg (Anuchit Nguyen):  “Thailand’s factory production grew   more than expected in July as electronics manufacturers boosted production to   meet rising overseas orders. Manufacturing production expanded 9.3 percent   from a year earlier, faster than June’s revised 9.2 percent increase…” August   30 – UPI:  “The Philippines economy expanded 6.2 percent in the second   quarter, slightly above the government’s target of 6.0 percent. Romulo Virola   of the National Statistical Coordination Board said Monday the economy was   boosted by growth in personal consumption and the services sector.    Personal consumption jumped 6.0 percent while services rose 7.3 percent…” September   2 – Bloomberg (Stephanie Phang):  “Malaysia’s exports unexpectedly   accelerated in July as manufacturers such as Unisem (M) Bhd. shipped more   computer chips and other electrical and electronics goods to the U.S., Asia   and Europe. Stocks rose. Exports surged 29 percent from a year earlier to   42.63 billion ringgit ($11 billion), the quickest pace in seven months…” September   3 – Bloomberg (Cherian Thomas):  “India’s inflation rate accelerated for   a fourth week in five as food prices rose and increasing fuel costs pushed up   prices of manufactured goods, intensifying pressure on the central bank to   raise interest rates.  Wholesale prices rose 8.17 percent from a year   earlier…up from a 7.94 percent gain in the previous week and the biggest   increase since Feb. 17, 2001 …” September   1 – Bloomberg (Kartik Goyal):  “India’s tax revenue rose 20 percent in   the first four months of the fiscal year from a year earlier as companies   increased production, boosting incomes, the Controller General of Accounts   said…” August   30 – Bloomberg (Gautam Chakravorthy):  “India’s central bank expects   bank loans to expand by as much as 16.5 percent in the year to March 31,   2005, on increased demand for credit to fund public works such as roads and   electricity plants. ‘The industrial recovery currently underway has been   broad-based and qualitatively robust,’ the Reserve Bank of India said in its   annual assessment of the economy.” Global Reflation Watch: August   31 – Bloomberg (Greg Quinn):  “Canada’s economic growth accelerated to a   4.3 percent annual rate in the second quarter, the fastest in two years, and   the government increased its estimate of expansion in the first three months   of the year. Surging exports pushed Canada’s gross domestic product, the sum   of goods and services produced by the world’s eighth-largest economy, to an   annualized C$1.12 trillion ($851 billion) between April and June…” September   2 – Dow Jones:  “European securitization is on track for another record   year, after six months of record activity in the asset-backed market.    Issuance of securitized debt reached EUR125.6 billion in the first half of   the year, easily outstripping 2003’s EUR95.1 billion total by 32.2%, the   European Securitization Forum said Thursday.” September   1 – MarketNews:  “Home construction in France remained buoyant in July,   as three-month housing starts posted a 15.1% rise on the year, while permits   for the same period were up 23.5%, according to non-seasonally adjusted data   released Tuesday by the Construction Ministry.  For the month of July   alone, starts were up 14.2% on the year…” August   31 – Bloomberg (Fergal O’Brien):  “Irish mortgage lending growth rose at   a record annual pace in July, as the lowest borrowing costs in 50 years   boosts demand for property…  Mortgage lending grew an annual 31.7   percent in July compared with 27.3 percent in June, Ireland's central bank   said…” August   31 – Bloomberg (Gonzalo Vina):  “U.K. home loans rose at their slowest   pace in almost a year in July and fewer mortgages were approved than at any   time since November 2000, suggesting higher borrowing costs are beginning to   damp the housing market.” September   3 – Bloomberg (Sam Fleming):  “U.K. house prices fell for the first time   in two years in August, HBOS Plc said, indicating that five interest-rate   increases since November are beginning to damp property demand. House prices   fell 0.6 percent from July, the first drop since August 2002, leaving the   price of an average house at 160,565 pounds ($286,921), according to the U.K.’s   biggest mortgage lender.” September 1 – Bloomberg (Mark Bentley): “Turkey’s exports increased 22 percent in August from a year earlier, the Turkish Exporters’ Association said… The country had exports of $4.7 billion in the month… Exports for the January-August period jumped 34 percent from 2003 to about $40 billion.” August   31 – Bloomberg (Romina Nicaretta):  “Brazil’s economy expanded at its   fastest pace in almost eight years in the second quarter… Gross domestic   product, the broadest measure of a country’s production of goods and   services, grew 5.7 percent from a year earlier after expanding 2.7 percent in   the first quarter, the government said.” August   31 – Bloomberg (Guillermo Parra-Bernal and Katia Cortes):  “Brazilian   President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will ask lawmakers to increase spending   by 15 percent next year to pay for higher state wages, road construction and   new schools and hospitals, Planning Minister Guido Mantega said.” U.S. Bubble Economy Watch: September   2 – Bloomberg (James Kraus):  “Starbucks Corp., the largest U.S.   coffee-shop chain, plans to raise its prices for the first time in four years   to cover higher rent, health insurance costs and higher milk prices, the Wall   Street Journal reported, citing chairman Howard Schultz.” September   2 – UPI:  “Texans like to say everything is bigger in their state, and   when it comes to monthly car and truck payments, they’re correct. Houston and   Dallas lead the country in the size of auto loans and payments, averaging   $441 in Houston and $424 in Dallas, according to a review of 3 million   consumer profiles by Experian Consumer Direct.” September   3 – Bloomberg (Dianne Finch):  “Massachusetts tax receipts reached $1.19   billion in August, an increase of 9.4 percent from a year earlier and $16   million more than budget forecasts, the Boston Herald reported. Income tax   receipts rose 8 percent to $650 million and sales tax receipts increased 7   percent to $334 million, the newspaper reported.” Personal   Income was up a weak 0.1% for the month of July, although Compensation was up   0.4% (Transfer Payments down 0.8%, Proprietors Income down 0.5% and Rental   Income down 0.6%).  Yet Personal Income is up 4.9% y-o-y.  This   compares to July 2003’s 3.1% y-o-y increase, 2002’s 1.9% y-o-y rise, and 2001’s   2.8%. Personal Spending was up a notable 0.8% during July, with a   year-over-year gain of 5.9%.   Mortgage Finance Bubble Watch: September   2 – Dow Jones (Christine Richard and David Feldheim):  “Given the   boom in mortgage funding on Wall Street, it was only a matter of time before   negative amortization mortgages made a reappearance.  Considered one   of the most aggressive loan structures on the market, these loans currently   are being made in sufficient numbers to back billion dollar-plus securitized   bond transactions.  This week, Pasadena, Calif.-based IndyMac Bancorp,   Inc. completed the sale of $1.2 billion in bonds backed by negative   amortization mortgages, and …Washington Mutual, Inc. sold $1.25 billion in   bonds backed by such loans. …Countrywide Financial Corp. included some   negative amortization mortgages in two mortgage securitizations sold in   recent weeks totaling $4.5 billion.” September   3 – Bloomberg (James Tyson):  “Former Freddie Mac Chief Executive Leland   Brendsel urged a judge not to delay release of more than $50 million in   compensation withheld during a probe into a $5 billion earnings restatement   by the mortgage-finance company. A prolonged freeze on Brendsel’s assets   would prevent him from selling his Freddie Mac stock and expose him to losses   from a possible fall in the share price, Brendsel said in a filing in the   U.S. District Court in Washington.” July   Construction Spending was reported at a record annualized rate of $997   billion. Year-to-date, Construction Spending is running 8% ahead of last year’s   record.  Total spending was up 9.7% from July 2003.  Spending on   Residential construction was up 13.9% from one year earlier and was up 26%   from July 2002.  Nonresidential spending was up 5% y-o-y, with   Healthcare up 16.3%, lodging 12.9%, and Power 16.8%.  Nonresidential   Spending for Public Safety declined 8.5%, Conservation down 6.4%, and   Communication down 3.5%. “OFHEO   House Price Index Shows Largest One Year Increase Since 1970’s:”  “Average   U.S. home prices increased 9.36 percent from the second quarter of 2003   through the second quarter of 2004,” the strongest rise since inflationary   year 1979.  Second quarter inflation of 2.21% was up from the first   quarter’s 1.45%, while the 5-year national gain increased to 43.59%.  “The   House Price Index is based on transactions involving conforming, conventional   mortgages purchases or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac… The   conforming limit for single-family homes in 2004 is $333,700.”  It is   worth noting that this methodology misses much of the housing inflation in   California (up 4.85% for the quarter and 18.39% y-o-y), especially throughout   Southern CA.  Still, consequences of the California housing Bubble are   apparent in neighboring Nevada’s (#1 state price gains) 7.53% second quarter   price gain (22.92% over one year; 53.06% over 5 years).  Even Oregon (up   2.38% for the quarter) and Washington (2.43%), states underperforming   economically, posted strong price gains.  Also benefiting, prices in   Arizona were up 2.61% for the quarter and 1.84% in New Mexico.   Following   Nevada, Hawaii was number two at an 18.9% 12-month gain.  California was   third, followed by Rhode Island’s 17.86% rise.  The comes the District   of Columbia (16.07%), Maryland (15.4%), Florida (14.23%), New Jersey   (12.75%), Virginia (12.21%), Maine (12.01%), Vermont (11.78%), Delaware   (11.52%), New York (10.95%), Connecticut (10.7%), New Hampshire (10.39%) and   Massachusetts (9.79%). Still the Financial Market “Horse” and Economy “Cart”? I   apologize, but an unavoidable time constraint today has made this an   especially feeble “holiday edition” CBB.  But, then again, for the long   weekend there are better uses of one’s time than reading a rambling Bulletin.     Curiously,   an apparent slowdown in economic growth has had minimal impact on   economically-sensitive stocks.  The Dow Jones Transportation Average has   posted a nearly 5% y-t-d gain.  The S&P Homebuilding index is up 9%   y-t-d and the S&P Retailing index has gained 6%.  The Morgan Stanley   Cyclical index has a 2004 gain of better than 2%.  Why are stocks   resilient in the face of disappointing economic news?  Well, I will   argue that financial markets continue to act as the “horse” and the economy   the “cart.”  Despite today’s backup in rates, ten-year government bond   yields are almost 50 basis points below highs from three months ago.    Mortgage borrowing costs have sunk right back to quite attractive levels, and   it is not unreasonable to expect mortgage Credit growth to continue to   surprise on the upside.   Today’s   employment report and upward revisions suggests the economy is not slowing   significantly.  Prior to February’s gain, manufacturing jobs had been   lost for 42 consecutive weeks.  Over this period, manufacturing payrolls   had declined by over 3 million.  This year, manufacturing has gained   jobs in 6 of 8 months, although only 97,000 have been added to manufacturing   payrolls.  It is also worth noting that August’s 144,000 payroll   increase compares to a decline of 25,000 from one year ago, 11,000 added   during August 2002, 141,000 lost during August 2001, and 28,000 added during   August 2000. And   although the 144,000 increase in non-farm payrolls was about in line with   expectations, hypersensitive financial markets (ex-equities) nonetheless   responded as if there was some big surprise.  Ten-year Treasury yields   jumped 16 basis points, the euro and other major currencies dropped better   than 1%, gold sank $6, and commodities were hammered.  I would argue   that the payroll data was especially important to the markets, not for what   is suggested about the economy but rather for what it conveyed about   near-term financial stability.  Until some type of development reins in   Credit system excess, the financial “horse” appears determined to drag the “cart”   along for the ride. I   have attempted to develop analysis that “Trouble at the Core” has fostered an   historic episode of Monetary Disorder.   My thinking is that   Mortgage Finance Bubble “blow-off” excesses and requisite massive foreign   central bank ballooning of dollar reserves have created quite powerful and   unusual dynamics.  For one, liquidity excess emanating from The Core has   over-liquefied the Periphery (globally and domestically).  Moreover, it   appears at this point that even heightened stress at The Core tends only to   exacerbate this dynamic (flows to the Periphery).  It was certainly a   curious situation today when a meaningful U.S. bond market decline was met   with yawns throughout the emerging markets.  It was not that long ago   that emerging bonds would have been hammered on a day like today.   And   this line of analysis turns only more challenging when it comes to examining   Financial Fragility.  On the one hand, since financial excesses today   primarily emanate from “triple-A” agency securities, ABS, MBS, and Wall   Street “structured products” financing inflating real estate assets, there   has been to this point an unparalleled Stability of Monetary Disorder   (basically unlimited demand for “money-like” Credit instruments – whereby the   financial sector in concert with foreign central banks create   demand/liquidity for self-sustaining expansion).  On the other hand, the   dynamics of “blow-off” excess are unstable, dangerous, and unpredictable in   the near-term.  In this regard, one can look to manic borrowing and home   buying in California, along with the leveraging of the REITs and speculators   for evidence of precarious “blow-off” dynamics.  A strong case can be made   that NASDAQ1999-style excesses (financial and economic) have taken firm hold   throughout mortgage finance.   But   I will make one more attempt at using this “Trouble at the Core” analytical   framework to help explain the current market environment.  First of all,   Mortgage Finance Bubble excess entails unprecedented Credit creation, with   attendant risk intermediation and speculative leveraging.  The Great   Mortgage Spread Trade (shorting Treasuries or borrowing short-term to   speculate in higher-yielding mortgage assets) has created acute market   distortions, including a massive short position in Treasuries.  There   has been, as well, a massive creation and transfer of risk to highly   leveraged players that rely predominantly on the derivatives market for interest-rate   hedging.  As the same time, dollar liquidity excesses (trade deficits   combined with speculative outflows) necessitate huge foreign official   Treasury and agency debt purchases.  The end result is an upward bias in   the Treasury market (“inflationary bias”) that tends to anchor mortgage   borrowing costs at an artificially low (and stimulating) level.   As   we have witnessed over the past few months, the bond market is sensitive to   weaker economic data.  Even after the past two days bond sell-off, 10-year   Treasury yields are significantly below June highs.  Importantly, the   bond market rally has exacerbated Mortgage Finance Bubble “blow-off” excess.    The environment has added significantly to financial fragility – greater   quantities of increasingly risky loans, more speculative leveraging, and   heightened systemic leverage, risk intermediation and more vulnerable debt   structures.  And, in the process, dollar vulnerability has become more   acute, although market dynamics also dictate that an abrupt dollar short-squeeze   could develop at any time.  The   defining feature of contemporary finance is the capacity for the unlimited   expansion of perceived money-like dollar Credit instruments.  In the   process, there are three distinct financial risks created:  interest-rate,   dollar, and Credit.  And while Credit risks are held at bay during this   ongoing period of “blow-off” excess and real estate inflation, interest-rate   and dollar risks are today prominent.  Clearly, massive derivative   protection has been acquired, and this “insurance” market now plays an   instrumental role in interest-rate and currency market trading dynamics.    It is this situation that creates such unsettled trading conditions.    This type of environment works as a war of attrition for traders and speculators,   with marketplace liquidity suffering along the way. And   while today’s employment data was generally “in-line” with expectations, the   absence of economic weakness necessitated a reversal of risk hedges.    The bond market was under meaningful selling pressure, as were foreign   currencies.  Market yields rose, along with the dollar.  And with a   stronger dollar, commodities were under selling pressure.  And so goes   another week in the world of speculative finance, with trading becoming only   further detached from underlying fundamentals. I   believe it was last week that I made reference to the issue “how long market   ebb and flow can hold market dislocation at bay?”  To be more precise in   my analysis, I believe the current Credit Bubble “blow-off” has created an   untenable expansion in interest-rate, dollar and Credit risk.  Much of   this risk now resides in ballooning derivative markets and is “managed”   through unsound dynamic trading strategies.  At this point, huge buy or   sell programs will exacerbate market moves either up or down, especially in   the interest-rate and currency markets.  But we also know that   unprecedented foreign central bank purchases have acted to contain dollar and   bond market declines.  This exacerbates Credit excess and market risks   (interest-rate, dollar, Credit), fostering only greater derivative hedging.     Watching   the recent market environment, I am reminded of the 18 months preceding the   Argentina financial crisis.  There was no doubt in my mind that the   Argentine Credit system had become acutely fragile – with an untenable   currency derivatives/hedging marketplace.  Credit and speculative excess   had inflicted great vulnerability upon the financial system and severe   structural distortions to the real economy.  At the same time, it was   impossible to predict how long the authorities and financial players could   hold crisis at bay by sustaining excesses.  Throughout, very few   appreciated either the market dynamics involved or the acute financial and   economic fragility that had developed.  With so much at risk,   extraordinary measures were taken to sustain the boom, support its currency   system, and ward off bust.  But it was all for not.  Indeed, a very   strong case could be made that postponing the unavoidable financial and   dislocation added greatly to the severity of the Argentine bust.  The   nature of current U.S. excesses and maladjustment far exceed those that   buried Argentina.  But, for now, it does seem to be a question of how   long the U.S. Financial Sector “Horse” can drag along the Economic “Cart.”           | 
